Excerpts:
The Impending New Distribution Channel: ChatGPT
By now, the pattern should be clear. Every major platform follows the same playbook: open, grow, close, monetize. My personal belief is that ChatGPT is the next distribution platform. I think it will happen within the next 6 months (and possibly faster). Even if it's not ChatGPT, it will be someone else and the pattern will repeat.
The companies that survived previous platform shifts didn't just integrate—they integrated strategically. They used Facebook's viral channels while building email lists. They leveraged Google's traffic while developing brand loyalty. They sold through the App Store while creating web experiences.
This time won't be different. Use ChatGPT's distribution, but don't depend on it. Let their AI enhance your product, but don't let it become your product. Most importantly, assume the platform will turn hostile and plan accordingly.
The stampede is coming. If I'm right, in six months, it's likely every SaaS product and consumer application will be rushing to complete a ChatGPT integration. In twelve months, users will expect it. In eighteen months, the platform taxes will arrive. In twenty-four months, the graveyard will be full.
If you've gotten to this point in the essay, you can see it coming. You understand the pattern. You know the game. The only question left is whether you'll play it with your eyes open or closed.
Because in platform shifts, there are only three types of companies: those who move too early and waste resources, those who move too late and miss the window, and those who see the shift coming and position themselves to win.
The clock isn't just ticking, it's accelerating. And in this game, the house always wins.
But if you play it right, you can win too—at least for a while.
Choose wisely. Move deliberately. And whatever you do, don't be naive.
The next great distribution shift isn't coming. It's here. And whether you're ready or not, you're already playing.
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From:
Brian Balfour <hello@mail1.reforge.com>Date: Wed, Jun 18, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Subject: The Next Great Distribution Shift: Why Product and Growth Leaders Need to Prepare
To: <
dctcutler@gmail.com>
We're living through one of the most significant technology shifts in history, yet we're still distributing products like it's 2015. .͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ 
FRESH INSIGHTS BRIAN BALFOUR |
The Next Great Distribution Shift |
We're living through one of the most significant technology shifts in history, yet we're still distributing products like it's 2015. |
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FRESH INSIGHTS BRIAN BALFOUR |
The Next Great Distribution Shift |
We're living through one of the most significant technology shifts in history, yet we're still distributing products like it's 2015. |
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Today, I'm launching my personal newsletter where I'll write more opinion-based posts on AI, product, and growth. I'm starting with a topic that I think is one of the most important pieces I've written. Don't worry, the great content from Reforge will continue to flow. The AI revolution has transformed how we build products. But there's a glaring problem—this technology shift has come without a distribution shift. In fact, AI is actively destroying the distribution channels we've relied on for decades. SEO traffic is plummeting as users shift to answer engine platforms. Social algorithms are more unpredictable than ever. The old playbooks are burning.
But I believe we're on the precipice of something bigger. The next great distribution shift is coming, and it's going to reshape how products find users just as dramatically as search engines and app stores did before it.
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When this shift happens—and the early signals suggest it's already beginning—there will be extraordinary windows of opportunity. There will also be casualties. |
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- I'm going to show you exactly how this cycle works.
- We'll walk through the rise and fall of multiple major distribution platforms from Facebook to Google to LinkedIn.
- I'll predict who I think will be the next distribution platform and why.
- Most importantly, we'll cover what you need to do now—before the window closes—to position your product for success in the AI platform era.
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Because here's the truth: You can't opt out of this game. Your competitors won't. Your users won't. The only choice is whether you play it with your eyes open or closed.
Let's make sure you see what's coming. - Brian |
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